Hryvnia rate: wait for a black swan? Expert Bank Credit Dnepr on the main trends of the foreign exchange market
27 June 2018
The rate of the national currency in the Ukrainian open economy is determined by the ratio of supply, which is formed by export earnings and money of labor migrants, and demand from importers and non-residents. Also important factors of exchange rate influence are the course of cooperation with international financial organizations, macroeconomic and political risks.
Banking experts spoke about this at a meeting of the Financial Press Club on "How does the currency interbank?". Credit Dnepr Bank was represented at the event by Oleg Kurin, Director of the Treasury of the Financial Institution.
"Ukrainian interbank market today is small in volume - about $ 200 million a day - and highly sensitive to the effects of both external and internal factors," said Oleg Kurin. - And because of this, it is characterized by a pronounced seasonality due to the activity and price situation of the raw materials and energy markets, schedules of servicing external loans, receipt of tranches from international financial institutions, payment of VAT, repayment of government bonds, repatriation of dividends. The factors that stabilize the market are the active participation of the regulator, which smoothly mitigates the situational distortions of supply and demand, as well as a substantial supply from the cash market, which is fueled by the money of the workers. "
The expert believes that the exchange rate trend, in the absence of economic and political shocks, will not reach the end of the year for $ 30.1 a barrel in the budget, rather, it will be in a more favorable corridor of 27-28 UAH / $.
During the professional discussion, the bankers discussed the actual aspects and tools of work of the interbank market, evaluated the innovations of the recently adopted Law "On Currency", formulated expectations for further liberalization of the foreign exchange market, answered business journalists' questions.